By Doug Pinkham
Public Affairs Council President

September 8, 2010

Looking More Like 1994

Tuesday morning brought more bad news for Democrats, as a new Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Republicans making strong gains before the midterm elections this November.

"For the first time in more than four years," noted the Post, "Republicans run about evenly with Democrats on the basic question of which party they trust to handle the nation's biggest problems." Earlier this summer, Democrats had a 12-point advantage.

During the last year, the media have published many stories about the similarities between 2010 and 1994, when Republicans captured both the House and the Senate. Democrats, obviously, have discounted those similarities. One of the main differences, White House Senior Advisor David Axelrod told The New York Times last spring, is that "the ire is aimed at Washington, not just one party." Indeed, Congress' overall "disapproval rating" has now reached 72%.

But that's exactly the percentage of voters who disapproved of the entire Congress weeks before the 1994 midterms.

Change You Can't Define

Here's another interesting statistic: For the first time since Obama's election, a majority of respondents (53%) say the president has failed to bring "needed change" to Washington. Yet no other president in recent times has focused so much on trying to build trust in government. From his lobbying restrictions to his outspokenness about campaign finance issues, Obama has constantly reminded voters that he aims to keep his promise to clean up Washington.

There are two lessons here. One, the public cares a lot more about results than process.  Tough hiring practices and new transparency rules don't boost the public's confidence in government if - in the same year - Charlie Rangel's ethics problems and the incompetence of financial and energy regulators make bigger headlines.

Two, when the economy continues to languish, nothing else really matters. In the Post/ABC News poll, respondents say the economy is the most important issue as they decide how to vote in November. It is followed, in this order, by healthcare, the federal budget deficit and taxes. That means three of the top four voter issues have something to do with money or government spending. 

The public's desire for "needed change" has a lot to do with its desire for a government that can solve crucial problems. (This is true, by the way, even if the problems are too big for the government to solve.)

Campaigning with the Stars

PolitiFact, a project of the St. Petersburg Times that rates the truthfulness of politicians and pundits, has released its Fall TV Preview - but it has nothing to do with the latest reality TV shows. This viewers' guide is designed to help voters "fact-check" candidate claims. Here are the messages you're most likely to hear as we approach the November elections, with commentary by PolitiFact Editor Bill Adair:

• My opponent is a lobbyist! "Candidates who can be linked to the political establishment - particularly if they were Gucci-wearing lobbyists for the special interests - are easy targets."

• Insiders acting like outsiders. "Members of Congress have always portrayed themselves as independent of the Washington power structure, but it's especially true this year because Congress' approval ratings have been hovering near historic lows."

• My opponent wants to privatize Social Security! "We've heard the line in Senate races in Colorado, Arkansas and many other states."

• Where are the jobs? " This has been a favorite theme for Republicans, who repeatedly cite high unemployment numbers and claim the Democratic stimulus plan has done little to create jobs."

• My opponent is the candidate of Big Oil (or BP)! "The oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico has been capped, but images of oil gushing into the water are still fresh in voters' minds, so you can expect candidates to try to link their opponents to ‘Big Oil' and BP any time they can."

• Bad bankers. "With bankers now as unpopular as lobbyists (and members of Congress!), we've already seen several ads that criticize candidates for their banking ties."

• Stimulus silliness. "Republicans have tried to portray the stimulus as wasteful and ineffective, so watch for lots of claims about frivolous projects included in the bill."

• Oldies but goodies. "Democrats will paint Republicans as puppets of the special interests and Republicans will claim Democrats want to raise taxes."

"And you can be sure," concludes PolitiFacts, "both sides will complain that the other side is running too many negative ads.

Comments? Email me at http://pac.org/contact/blog.